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118 →- MakaleAçık Erişim2026The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Türkiye and PIIGS Countries
Yıldız, Ümit; Bayhan, Semiha
In economies, borrowing may be resorted to in case of insufficient tax and tax-like revenues in financing public expenditures. In this respect, public debts are essential for financing growth and development. The effects of public debts, among the natural income sources of economies, on economic growth are intensely discussed today. The relationship between public debt and economic growth is important, especially in developing countries and relatively fragile economies where savings are insufficient to finance investments. This study aims to reveal the effects of public debt on economic growth in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS), which are considered the fragile economies of the Eurozone, and also in Türkiye. For this purpose, the study's findings, which analyze the panel data of the relevant countries for the period 1998-2022, basically conclude that public debt positively affects economic growth in Türkiye and PIIGS countries. These findings emphasize the importance of accurately formulating public borrowing policies and implementing appropriate strategies for economic growth in the relevant countries.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Econometric Analysis of Causal Relationship Between External Debt and Inflation in Türkiye: Frequency Domain Causality Approach
Yıldız, Ümit; Bayramoglu, Turgut
The primary objective of this study is to examine the causal nexus between external debt and inflation in Türkiye and to determine whether this relationship is persistent or transitory. Using quarterly data on total external debt stock and the consumer price index for the 2004Q01–2025Q01 period, this study analyzes causal relationships across the short, medium, and long run within the frequency-domain causality framework. According to the empirical results, no causal relationship from inflation to external debt is detected in any period; however, a unidirectional causality exists from external debt to inflation in the short and medium run, although this relationship does not hold in the long run. The study's findings indicate that external debt is a driver of inflation in Türkiye, but the causal relationship is not persistent. These results offer significant implications for anti-inflationary policies and debt management strategies.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Analysıs of asymmetrıc relatıonshıps between ınflatıon and trade openness ın türkiye: evıdence from the hıdden coıntegratıon test for the perıod 1975-2024
Yıldız, Ümit
This study analyzes the long-term relationships between inflation and trade openness in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1975 to 2024, the study employs annual percentage change in the consumer price index to represent inflation, and the share of total trade in gross domestic product to represent trade openness. Long-term cointegration relationships between the variables are examined using the Engle & Granger (1987) cointegration method and the Granger & Yoon (2002) hidden cointegration method. The findings from the Engle & Granger (1987) test reveal a long-term cointegration relationship from inflation to trade openness in Türkiye during the relevant period. Meanwhile, the Granger & Yoon (2002) test detects hidden cointegration relationships from the positive and negative components of inflation to the negative components of trade openness. Following the identification of hidden cointegration relationships, long-term coefficients are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. According to the estimation results, a 1-unit increase in the positive components of inflation causes a decrease of approximately 0.26 units in the negative components of trade openness. Conversely, a 1-unit increase in the negative components of inflation increases the negative components of trade openness by approximately 0.22 units. In general, the findings indicate that increases in inflation during the relevant period reduced the contraction in trade openness in Türkiye, while decreases deepened it.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026The Transformation of Local Independent Retail in City Centers and Its Effects on the City's Macroform: The Case of Ankara
Yıldız, Seçil Gül Meydan; Şengün, Hayriye; Kara, Adnan; Ozden, Erdemalp
The unplanned growth of city centers threatens the local fabric of cities, while local retail has become an important component of preserving city identity and sustainable consumption. This research aims to examine the effect of shopping motivations on customer satisfaction and to determine how factors such as customer proximity, relationships with local suppliers, and store atmosphere shape consumers' perception of Urban Attachment. Data obtained using systematic and stratified sampling methods in the districts of Altındağ, Çankaya, Etimesgut, Gölbaşı, Keçiören, Mamak, Pursaklar, and Sincan in Ankara were analyzed. Statistical analysis methods such as linear regression, logistic regression, ANOVA, and independent samples t-test were used in the study. Regression analyses show a positive and statistically significant relationship between shopping motivations and customer satisfaction. Furthermore, proximity to the customer and relationships with local suppliers were found to have a significant and positive effect on customer satisfaction. Shopping motivations, community connection, and store atmosphere factor scores showed significant differences across different visit frequency groups. This study uniquely highlights the critical role local retailers play in strengthening consumers' emotional connection to the city. The findings emphasize local businesses' importance in preserving city identity and creating a sustainable consumption ecosystem.
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İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2026MIST Ülkelerinde Jeopolitik Riskin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerine Etkisi
Yıldız, Şaduman
Tasarruf oranları düşük olan gelişmekte olan ülkelerde iktisadi büyüme çoğunlukla doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar aracılığı ile artırılabilmektedir. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar aracılığı ile ülkeler sermaye birikimini ve istihdamı artırmanın yanı sıra ülkeye teknoloji transferi de sağlayabilmektedirler. Bu çalışmada, yükselen ekonomiler olarak tanımlanan MIST (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye) ülkelerinde 1985-2023 dönem aralığında jeopolitik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerine etkisi panel veri analizi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların bağımlı değişken olduğu model için yapılan eşbütünleşme testi sonucuna göre doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve jeopolitik risk arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Daha sonra yapılan katsayı tahmin testine göre jeopolitik riskte meydana gelen %1 oranındaki artış doğrudan yabancı yatırımları %0.176 oranında azaltmaktadır. Son olarak çalışmada yapılan nedensellik testi ile de eşbütünleşme testi sonuçları doğrulanmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, MIST ülkelerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımların artışı jeopolitik riskin düşük olmasına bağlı olarak gerçekleşmektedir. Bu bulgu, bu ülkelerdeki politika yapıcıların doğrudan yabancı yatırım politikalarını tasarlarken jeopolitik riski dikkate almaları gerektiğini göstermektedir.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026COVID-19 Sonrası Tedarik Zinciri Gecikmelerine Dair Ampirik Kanıtlar: APEC Ekonomileri Örneği
Okur, Fatih
Bu çalışma, 2015–2023 döneminde APEC ülkelerinde tedarik zinciri gecikmelerinin temel belirleyicilerini analiz etmektedir. Panel veri analizi yoluyla COVID-19 pandemisi, ekonomik gelişmişlik düzeyi ve bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının etkileri incelenmiştir. Ayrıca, modelde sanayi üretimi, dış ticaret hacmi, ticaret açıklığı, enflasyon oranı ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar gibi kontrol değişkenlerinin de tedarik zinciri gecikmeleri üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Sabit etkiler modeline dayalı analiz sonuçları, ihracat ve ithalat hacmi, sanayi üretimi ve ticaret açıklığının gecikmeleri artırdığını; ekonomik büyüme oranı ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ise gecikmeleri azalttığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, enflasyon oranı ve pandemi dönemi gecikmeler üzerinde anlamlı ve olumsuz etkiler yaratmıştır. Alt grup analizleri, bu ilişkilerin dönemsel ve ülke türüne göre farklılaştığını ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, tedarik zinciri performansını artırmak isteyen politika yapıcılar için önemli yol göstericidir. Bu bağlamda lojistik altyapının güçlendirilmesi, fiyat istikrarının korunması ve esnek tedarik stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi önerilmektedir.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND HOUSING INVESTMENTS: AN EMPIRICAL VAR ANALYSIS FOR THE EURO AREA (EA-19)
Tunçay, Cenap Mengu; Akar, Nuri Cagri
The housing sector is considered one of the key factors of macroeconomic fluctuations. Consequently, analyzing the scale of housing investments within economies and identifying the primary drivers influencing these investments is of major importance. Since one of the variables determining investments is uncertainty, and housing investments are affected by uncertainty, it is important to determine to what extent uncertainty has an impact on housing investments. While many studies have examined the effect of uncertainty on housing prices and returns, the effect on housing investments has rarely been discussed. The dynamic impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on housing investments remains nearly unmentioned in the Euro Area-19 (EA-19). According to Real Options Theory, uncertainty leads to investment delays. If this relationship holds for the housing market, new construction investments should fluctuate in response to uncertainty, meaning that dwellings, which can serve as a proxy indicator for housing investments, may be affected by uncertainty. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship between the Europe-wide EPU Index and the EA-19 Dwellings Index by using monthly data (1994 M2-2023 M8). In the literature, this study is the first article to investigate the dynamic relationship between EPU and housing investments for EA-19 by performing Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis. Based on the VAR analysis, the EPU index produces virtually no statistically significant effect on the dwellings index in the EA-19, although a unidirectional Granger causality from EPU to housing investment is detected. Based on this result, it is also possible to claim that political uncertainties in the EA-19 may not be one of the reasons for economic fluctuations due to housing investments. This study contributes to further research in this field, as it is the first study analyzing the effect of EPU on housing investments in the EA-19.
- MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2026Asymmetric Nexus Between Gold and Bitcoin: New Evidence from Hidden Cointegration Approach
Yildiz, Umit
The main objective of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric linkages between gold, a traditional investment instrument, and Bitcoin, often referred to as the digital gold of cryptocurrencies, and to determine their direction and magnitude. Forthis purpose, the study examines cointegration relationships amongthe variables using weekly data from January 2, 2022, to April 5, 2026. According to the Engle & Granger (1987) cointegration test, there is no long-term relationship between the variables. However, the Granger &Yoon (2002) hidden cointegration test determined hidden cointegration relationships from the gold's positive components to the Bitcoin's positive components and from the Bitcoin's positive components to the gold's negative components. Subsequently, longterm coefficients are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. The results show that a 1% increase in gold's positive shocks leads to approximately a 0.92%-0.95% decrease in Bitcoin's positive shocks. A 1% increase in Bitcoin's positive shocks results in approximately a 0.08%-0.10% increase in gold's negative shocks. The estimation results show that increases in gold prices significantly constrain the rise in Bitcoin prices, but the impact of Bitcoin price increases on gold price decreases remains limited. Finally, the findings demonstrate that gold's market-making capacity as a traditional investment vehicle is stronger than that of modern financial investment vehicles.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ3Structural Transformation in Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The Case of Türkiye’s Post-2021 Policy Regime Shift; [Faiz ve Enflasyon Dinamiklerinde Yapısal Dönüşüm: Türkiye Örneğinde 2021 Sonrası Rejim Değişimi]
Okur, Fatih
This study examines the relationship between inflation and interest rates in Türkiye during the 2015-2024 period, with a specific focus on the monetary policy shift implemented in September 2021. Using the ARDL model, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and structural break analysis, the findings reveal a reversal in the inflation-interest rate relationship after the policy change. The results suggest that the observed dynamics may reflect not a temporary anomaly but a structural transformation aligned with the Neo-Fisher effect, offering critical insights into the effectiveness of monetary policy under changing regimes.
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İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ2The Effect of Data Types’ on the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms for Cryptocurrency Prediction
Tanrikulu, Hulusi Mehmet; Pabuccu, Hakan
Forecasting cryptocurrencies as a financial issue is crucial as it provides investors with possible financial benefits. A slight improvement in forecasting performance can lead to increased profitability; Therefore, obtaining a realistic forecast is very important for investors. Bitcoin, frequently mentioned in recent due to its volatility and chaotic behavior, has become an investment tool, especially during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, selected ML techniques were investigated for predicting cryptocurrency movements by using technical indicator-based data sets and measuring the applicability of the techniques to cryptocurrencies that do not have sufficient historical data. In order to measure the effect of data size, Bitcoin’s last 1 year and 7 years of data were used. Following the related literature, Google trends and the number of tweets were used as input features, in addition to the most commonly used twelve technical indicators. Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost-XGB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network were optimized for best results. Accuracy, F1, and area under the ROC curve values were used to compare the model performance. For continuous data, ANN and SVM performed the best with the highest accuracy and outperformed the other ML models for complete and reduced sets. LSTM reached the best accuracy for trend data, but SVM, NB, and XGB models showed similar performance. The research shows that some indicators significantly affect prediction performance, and the data discretization process also improved the model’s accuracy. While the number of samples affects the results of many ML models, correctly optimized and fine-tuned models may also give excellent results even with less data.
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Tam Kayıt
| Alan | Değer | Dil |
|---|---|---|
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-10-29T17:14:19.909477745Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-10-29T17:14:19.909477745Z | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://rdlopen.rawdatalibrary.net/r/bayburt/10121 | |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
| dc.title | İktisat Bölümü | tr |
| dc.title | Department of Economics | en |
| organization.identifier.code | bayburt-iktisadi-ve-idari-bilimler-iktisat | |
| organization.unitType | department | |
| rdl.unit.alias | \biktisat bolumu\b | |
| rdl.unit.alias | \becon(omics)?\b |