Structural Transformation in Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The Case of Türkiye’s Post-2021 Policy Regime Shift; [Faiz ve Enflasyon Dinamiklerinde Yapısal Dönüşüm: Türkiye Örneğinde 2021 Sonrası Rejim Değişimi]

This study examines the relationship between inflation and interest rates in Türkiye during the 2015-2024 period, with a specific focus on the monetary policy shift implemented in September 2021. Using the ARDL model, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and structural break analysis, the findings reveal a reversal in the inflation-interest rate relationship after the policy change. The results suggest that the observed dynamics may reflect not a temporary anomaly but a structural transformation aligned with the Neo-Fisher effect, offering critical insights into the effectiveness of monetary policy under changing regimes.