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Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

• 2

• MakaleAçık Erişim2026/r/bayburt/14435
  ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND HOUSING INVESTMENTS: AN EMPIRICAL VAR ANALYSIS FOR THE EURO AREA (EA-19)

  Tunçay, Cenap Mengu; Akar, Nuri Cagri

  The housing sector is considered one of the key factors of macroeconomic fluctuations. Consequently, analyzing the scale of housing investments within economies and identifying the primary drivers influencing these investments is of major importance. Since one of the variables determining investments is uncertainty, and housing investments are affected by uncertainty, it is important to determine to what extent uncertainty has an impact on housing investments. While many studies have examined the effect of uncertainty on housing prices and returns, the effect on housing investments has rarely been discussed. The dynamic impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on housing investments remains nearly unmentioned in the Euro Area-19 (EA-19). According to Real Options Theory, uncertainty leads to investment delays. If this relationship holds for the housing market, new construction investments should fluctuate in response to uncertainty, meaning that dwellings, which can serve as a proxy indicator for housing investments, may be affected by uncertainty. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship between the Europe-wide EPU Index and the EA-19 Dwellings Index by using monthly data (1994 M2-2023 M8). In the literature, this study is the first article to investigate the dynamic relationship between EPU and housing investments for EA-19 by performing Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis. Based on the VAR analysis, the EPU index produces virtually no statistically significant effect on the dwellings index in the EA-19, although a unidirectional Granger causality from EPU to housing investment is detected. Based on this result, it is also possible to claim that political uncertainties in the EA-19 may not be one of the reasons for economic fluctuations due to housing investments. This study contributes to further research in this field, as it is the first study analyzing the effect of EPU on housing investments in the EA-19.

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/bayburt/14486
  THE ROLE OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF US MONETARY POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY

  Akar, Nuri Cagri; Varlik, Cemil

  This article aims to examine the impacts of US monetary policy (MP) changes on the Turkish economy. A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model is estimated for the period 2002:01-2017:12, during which a flexible exchange rate regime was adopted in the Turkish economy. According to the impulse-response analysis, the Turkish interest rate responds positively and significantly to the US Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR). AThis result shows that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) MP follows the FED's MP, consistent with the dilemma hypothesis of Rey (2015). The analysis also demonstrates that both the EFFR and the VIX have a negative impact on net total capital inflows to the Turkish economy. The impulse-responses for the three components of net capital inflows indicate important conclusions. Firstly, neither EFFR nor VIX has a significant impact on Net Foreign Direct Investment (NFDI) inflows. Secondly, Net Portfolio Investments (NPI) respond significantly to the VIX but not to the EFFR. Thirdly, Net Other Investments (NOI) respond significantly to the EFFR but not to the VIX. These findings indicate that the NOI component plays a direct and major role in the emergence of the US MP's spillover effects on the Turkish MP.

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  AtıfWoS1

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/bayburt/16465
  Investigating the Relationship Between the Financial Conditions Index with Economic Growth and Net Capital Inflow: Causality Analysis for Türkiye

  Kuloğlu, Eşref; Akar, Nuri Çağrı

  The global economic crisis, which had a devastating effect worldwide with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brother's investment bank in the United States of America in 2008, revealed that countries should indicate risks and take precautions accordingly. In this sense, the importance of the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which was created by considering the monetary policy instruments of the country's central banks and various macroeconomic and financial variables as a whole, has also increased. FCI, the index that has taken place in the literature since the 1990s, with the growth of countries, has been investigated in empirical studies conducted after the global economic crisis. In this study, the related index is calculated using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and the data generated is analyzed with growth and net capital inflow items. According to the results of the related analysis, while there is bidirectional causality between FCI and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, one-way causality was found between FCI and net capital inflow. The index created accordingly is the Granger cause of the net capital inflow.

  AtıfOpenAlex1

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/bayburt/16439
  Investigating the relations between coffee prices and the growth of selected coffee exporting countries

  Kuloğlu, Eşref; Akar, Nuri Çağrı

  Coffee, one of the most important commodities traded in the world, is mainly grown in Latin America and Africa under certain altitudes and climatic conditions. In this study, causality relationships between world coffee prices and GDPs of four coffee producer countries, two from Latin America (Brazil and Colombia) and two from Africa (Kenya and Ethiopia), were tested. Using the series from 1981-2021, the relationships were investigated empirically with Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, error correction model, and Toda-Yamamoto causality methods. According to the analysis, while unidirectional causality between GDP and world coffee price was found for Brazil, Colombia, and Kenya, there was no causality for Ethiopia. As a result of the Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, which tests the long-term relationship, a significant relationship has been found between GDP and coffee prices for all selected countries. According to the results of the error correction model results model that tests the short-term relationship, the relationship between GDP and world coffee price is obtained for Brazil and Colombia. However, such a relationship could not be found in Kenya and Ethiopia.

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  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2022/r/bayburt/16747
  Üçlü Açmaz - İkili Açmaz Hipotezlerine İlişkin Tartışmalar

  Varlık, Cemil; Akar, Nuri Çağrı

  Bu çalışmada üçlü açmaz ve ikili açmaz görüşlerine ilişkin tartışmalar ışığında teorik ve ampirik literatürün incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Üçlü açmaz hipotezi, parasal bağımsızlık, sermaye hareketlerinin serbestliği ve döviz kuru istikrarı hedeflerinin aynı anda uygulanamayacağını, bunlardan sadece iki tanesinin gerçekleştirilebileceğini öngörmektedir. Bu görüşe göre, finansal entegrasyon altında para politikası bağımsızlığına, dalgalı bir döviz kuru rejimi sayesinde ulaşılabilir. Ancak Rey (2015) tarafından geliştirilen ikili açmaz hipotezi, finansal küreselleşme altında merkez ülkelerin para politikalarının çevre ülkelerin ulusal para politikalarını etkilediğini, bu yüzden söz konusu ülkelerin döviz kuru rejimine bağlı olmaksızın bağımsız bir para politikası uygulayamayacaklarını savunmaktadır. Bu görüşe göre, giderek küreselleşen piyasalarda döviz kuru artık bir şok emici işlevi görmemekte, esnek döviz kuruna sahip ülkeler bile bağımsız para politikası uygulayamamaktadır. Dolayısıyla son yıllarda birçok iktisatçı, üçlü açmazın ikili açmaza dönüştüğünü iddia etmeye başlamıştır. Literatürdeki tartışmalar ve ampirik çalışmalar incelendiğinde bir taraftan üçlü açmazın halen geçerli olduğuna dair bulgular ve görüşler mevcutken, diğer yandan üçlü açmazın artık ikili açmaza dönüştüğüne ilişkin eleştiriler ve bulgular vardır. Ayrıca ikili açmazın kısmen geçerli olduğuna dair bulgulara da rastlanmaktadır.

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