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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026/r/bayburt/16063
  The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Türkiye and PIIGS Countries

  Yıldız, Ümit; Bayhan, Semiha

  In economies, borrowing may be resorted to in case of insufficient tax and tax-like revenues in financing public expenditures. In this respect, public debts are essential for financing growth and development. The effects of public debts, among the natural income sources of economies, on economic growth are intensely discussed today. The relationship between public debt and economic growth is important, especially in developing countries and relatively fragile economies where savings are insufficient to finance investments. This study aims to reveal the effects of public debt on economic growth in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS), which are considered the fragile economies of the Eurozone, and also in Türkiye. For this purpose, the study's findings, which analyze the panel data of the relevant countries for the period 1998-2022, basically conclude that public debt positively affects economic growth in Türkiye and PIIGS countries. These findings emphasize the importance of accurately formulating public borrowing policies and implementing appropriate strategies for economic growth in the relevant countries.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026/r/bayburt/16051
  Econometric Analysis of Causal Relationship Between External Debt and Inflation in Türkiye: Frequency Domain Causality Approach

  Yıldız, Ümit; Bayramoglu, Turgut

  The primary objective of this study is to examine the causal nexus between external debt and inflation in Türkiye and to determine whether this relationship is persistent or transitory. Using quarterly data on total external debt stock and the consumer price index for the 2004Q01–2025Q01 period, this study analyzes causal relationships across the short, medium, and long run within the frequency-domain causality framework. According to the empirical results, no causal relationship from inflation to external debt is detected in any period; however, a unidirectional causality exists from external debt to inflation in the short and medium run, although this relationship does not hold in the long run. The study's findings indicate that external debt is a driver of inflation in Türkiye, but the causal relationship is not persistent. These results offer significant implications for anti-inflationary policies and debt management strategies.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026/r/bayburt/16041
  Analysıs of asymmetrıc relatıonshıps between ınflatıon and trade openness ın türkiye: evıdence from the hıdden coıntegratıon test for the perıod 1975-2024

  Yıldız, Ümit

  This study analyzes the long-term relationships between inflation and trade openness in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1975 to 2024, the study employs annual percentage change in the consumer price index to represent inflation, and the share of total trade in gross domestic product to represent trade openness. Long-term cointegration relationships between the variables are examined using the Engle & Granger (1987) cointegration method and the Granger & Yoon (2002) hidden cointegration method. The findings from the Engle & Granger (1987) test reveal a long-term cointegration relationship from inflation to trade openness in Türkiye during the relevant period. Meanwhile, the Granger & Yoon (2002) test detects hidden cointegration relationships from the positive and negative components of inflation to the negative components of trade openness. Following the identification of hidden cointegration relationships, long-term coefficients are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. According to the estimation results, a 1-unit increase in the positive components of inflation causes a decrease of approximately 0.26 units in the negative components of trade openness. Conversely, a 1-unit increase in the negative components of inflation increases the negative components of trade openness by approximately 0.22 units. In general, the findings indicate that increases in inflation during the relevant period reduced the contraction in trade openness in Türkiye, while decreases deepened it.

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• MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2026/r/bayburt/14339
  Asymmetric Nexus Between Gold and Bitcoin: New Evidence from Hidden Cointegration Approach

  Yildiz, Umit

  The main objective of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric linkages between gold, a traditional investment instrument, and Bitcoin, often referred to as the digital gold of cryptocurrencies, and to determine their direction and magnitude. Forthis purpose, the study examines cointegration relationships amongthe variables using weekly data from January 2, 2022, to April 5, 2026. According to the Engle & Granger (1987) cointegration test, there is no long-term relationship between the variables. However, the Granger &Yoon (2002) hidden cointegration test determined hidden cointegration relationships from the gold's positive components to the Bitcoin's positive components and from the Bitcoin's positive components to the gold's negative components. Subsequently, longterm coefficients are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. The results show that a 1% increase in gold's positive shocks leads to approximately a 0.92%-0.95% decrease in Bitcoin's positive shocks. A 1% increase in Bitcoin's positive shocks results in approximately a 0.08%-0.10% increase in gold's negative shocks. The estimation results show that increases in gold prices significantly constrain the rise in Bitcoin prices, but the impact of Bitcoin price increases on gold price decreases remains limited. Finally, the findings demonstrate that gold's market-making capacity as a traditional investment vehicle is stronger than that of modern financial investment vehicles.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ3/r/bayburt/12746
  Are Geopolitical Risks a Permanent Driver of Global Inflation? Evidence from 1985-2024

  Yıldız, Ümit

  This study investigates the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and global inflation and examines whether this causal effect, if any, is persistent. To this end, the stationarity of the annual Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and global inflation series for the 1985–2024 period was first analyzed using the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test, which concluded that the series are stationary at levels. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using a stationary frequency domain causality approach, revealing a unidirectional causal relationship running from GPR to global inflation at both low and high frequencies. The causality identified at low frequencies indicates that this causal effect is permanent. The findings of the study suggest that mitigating geopolitical risks is of vital importance in the fight against global inflation.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ4/r/bayburt/12706
  Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bitcoin: A Transient Nexus

  Yıldız, Ümit

  Uncertainty plays a significant role in shaping investment decisions, both directly and indirectly. In an uncertain economic environment, investors’ motivations for decision-making may vary. While some investors tend to seek safe-haven assets, others may engage in speculative behavior. Therefore, uncertainty can influence financial instruments through various mechanisms. One of these instruments is Bitcoin, which is often regarded as the “gold” of cryptocurrencies. Compared to traditional financial investment instruments, Bitcoin exhibits higher volatility and is among the primary assets that may be affected by uncertainty. However, an important question is whether this effect is temporary or per-manent. By adopting a frequency-domain causality approach, this study seeks to investigate the causal linkages between Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) and Bitcoin price movements. In this context, the causal nexus between GEPU and BTC prices is examined for the entire period and for different frequencies. Although the study's findings show no causal nexus between the variables over the entire period, the analyses for the short, medi-um, and long run indicate a causal relationship from GEPU to BTC in the medium run. Accordingly, GEPU can be considered one of the factors affecting BTC price; however, its impact does not appear to be persistent.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2022/r/bayburt/14150
  A New Approach to Human Capital: Crime Adjusted Human Capital Index on European Countries

  Kabakçi Günay, Eylul; Yildiz, Umit; Günsoy, Guler; Günsoy, Bulent

  Human capital is a one of the essential components in the economic growth and development. Also, the belief that education and health level, which are the main components of human capital, are main features of a happy and healthy society, is getting stronger. But there is a fact that crime is a destructive notion that affects a society???s human capital. In this context, this study aims to create an alternative social welfare measurement method that includes crime rates as a component to human capital on 35 European countries. In this regard, first, a general crime index was generated by using 13 different crime categories of the 35 European countries, and then this index was adapted to the Human Capital Index. As a result, the Crime-Adjusted Human Capital Index (CAHCI) was obtained. It was observed that the country rankings we obtained based on the CAHCI differ significantly from the rankings made based on the Human Capital Index. Significant number of countries, which ranks high in the Human Capital Index, ranks lower when crime rates are considered, indicates that the reliability of social welfare measures based on human capital should be questioned.

  AtıfWoS1

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2022/r/bayburt/16720
  Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Beklentileri Rasyonel mi?

  Yıldız, Ümit; Günsoy, Bülent

  Uluslararası ticari faaliyetlere olanak sağlayan döviz kurları ekonomileri birçok kanaldan etkileme gücüne sahip önemli bir makroekonomik değişkendir. Bu özelliği ile döviz kurları pek çok ülkede iktisat politikalarının temel odak noktaları arasında yer almaktadır. Döviz kurlarına yönelik politikalar geliştirilirken en az döviz kurunun izlediği süreç kadar kura yönelik beklentiler de politika yürütücüleri tarafından dikkatle izlenmektedir. Bu ne - denle beklentilerin rasyonalitesi hem doğru politikaların geliştirilebilmesi hem de etkin yürütülebilmesi için son derece önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için döviz kuru beklentilerinin rasyonel beklentiler hipotezinin öne sürdüğü gibi rasyonel olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada dolar kuruna yönelik kısa ve uzun dönem beklentilerin yansızlığının ve etkinliğinin incelenerek beklentilerin rasyonel olup olmadığının orta- ya konulması bu çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Çalışma bulgularına göre yansızlık hipotezi her durumda reddedilirken, etkinlik hipotezi genel olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu sonuçlar temel olarak mevcut bilginin etkin şekilde kullanılıyor olmasına rağmen ekonomik birimlerin yansız tahminlerde bulunamadığı daha net bir ifa- deyle beklentilerin rasyonel olmadığı sonucunu ima etmektedir. Türkiye’nin nispeten kırılgan bir yapıya sahip olması ile ekonomik ve politik şokların döviz kuru üzerindeki öngörülemeyen etkilerinin ulaşılan bu sonuçlar üzerinde etkili olduğu söylenebilir.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2021/r/bayburt/16759
  Frequency domain causality analysis of the relationship between the exchange rate and cds for turkey

  Yıldız, Ümit; Bayhan, Semiha; Kömür, Selin

  In this study, the causality relationship between the exchange rate and CDS is examined for\rTurkey. In the study, the causality relationship in question is tested as short, medium and\rlong term with the help of frequency domain causality approach. In the study in which daily\r5 years CDS for the period 11/03/2020-14/04/2021 and daily data of exchange rate of USA\rDollar representing the exchange rate are analyzed, a causal relationship is determined from\rthe exchange rate to CDS at low frequencies, in other words, a long-term causality\rrelationship is determined. However, no causality relationship was found from CDS to\rexchange rate in any term. The results basically imply that in the long run, the exchange rate\rof USA Dollar has an impact on CDS representing the country risk, in other words, the\rchanges in the exchange rate affect risk perception about Turkey in the long run.

  AtıfTR Dizin7

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2020/r/bayburt/15001
  Yüksek teknoloji ihracatı sürecinde inovasyonun etkisi: brıcs ülkeleri üzerine bir analiz

  Durmaz, Atakan; Yıldız, Ümit

  Bu çalışmanın amacı, BRICS ülkelerinde inovasyonun yüksek teknoloji ihracatı üzerindeki etkisinin olup olmadığının araştırılmasıdır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak çalışmada ilgili ülkelerin AR-GE harcamaları, sahip oldukları patent sayıları ve yüksek teknoloji ihracatı arasındaki ilişkiler 1999-2018 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Panel veri tekniklerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, öncelikle serilerde yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı araştırılmıştır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığının belirlenmesinin ardından, serilerde yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı durumunda da uygulanabilen Pesaran (2007) birim kök testi ile serilerin durağanlığı araştırılmıştır. Sonrasında ise düzeyde durağan olmadığı belirlenen serilerin farkı alınarak durağan hale getirilmiş ve değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler panel sabit etkiler ve panel rassal etkiler yöntemleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın çıktılarında, çalışmaya konu olan ülkelerde, patent sayısı ve yüksek teknoloji ihracatı arasında anlamlı pozitif ilişkiye rastlanılmıştır. Buna göre inovasyonun, BRICS ülkeleri için yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatında önemli bir faktör olduğu görülmekte, bu ülkelerde yüksek katma değer yaratmak için inovasyon faaliyetlerine önem verilmesi gerektiği anlaşılmaktadır.

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  AtıfOpenAlex6·TR Dizin3

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