Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1Global Financial Architecture Under Geopolitical, Financial and Policy Pressures: A Capacity-Pressure Index of Financial Resilience
Kuzu, Mehmet; Kocaoglu, Fatih
Financial resilience depends on both prevailing pressures and the resources available to maintain financial functions. This study proposes a Global Financial Resilience Index (GFRI) that combines selected structural indicators with the inverse of geopolitical, policy, and market pressures. The formal retrospective sample covers January 2000-June 2026; July-August extensions are reported separately. Fixed-reference standardisation and geometric aggregation produce a transparent capacity-pressure composite, not a measure of environmental, social or intergenerational sustainability. Fixed-basket comparisons retain some capacity improvement, but a balanced five-indicator panel covers only 20 economies and 12.4-16.0% of global GDP. Country selection and calibration alter the pandemic-era ranking. The OECD growth-cycle mean difference is -8.30 points with HAC(12) p = 0.055. Classification AUC is 0.658, with a 12-month block-bootstrap 95% interval of 0.468-0.821, and does not improve on matched stress benchmarks. The incremental explanatory power of industrial production is negligible. Weight simulations and publication-lag tests reveal uncertainty in material construction. The index offers a reproducible description of selected capacity and pressure conditions; the evidence does not support operational policy bands, superior crisis prediction or comprehensive sustainability claims.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ3Are Geopolitical Risks a Permanent Driver of Global Inflation? Evidence from 1985-2024
Yıldız, Ümit
This study investigates the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and global inflation and examines whether this causal effect, if any, is persistent. To this end, the stationarity of the annual Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and global inflation series for the 1985–2024 period was first analyzed using the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test, which concluded that the series are stationary at levels. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using a stationary frequency domain causality approach, revealing a unidirectional causal relationship running from GPR to global inflation at both low and high frequencies. The causality identified at low frequencies indicates that this causal effect is permanent. The findings of the study suggest that mitigating geopolitical risks is of vital importance in the fight against global inflation.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ2The moderating effects of geopolitical risks on sustainable development through economic complexity and renewable energy consumption in 25 oil-producing countries
Ongan, Serdar; Özdemir, Dilek; Imamoglu, Ilyas Kays; Isik, Cem
Conflicts in controlling or using natural resources, arising from geopolitical risks (GPR), which have become a new normal today, can damage natural ecosystems and threaten sustainable development. In this context, GPR can turn the positive impact of supporting independent variables on sustainable development (SD) into a negative one. This research investigates the moderating effects of GPR on SD through renewable energy consumption (REN) and economic complexity (EC) in 25 oil-producing countries with relatively higher oil-reserve-related risks between 2000 and 2021. The panel quantile regression analysis reveals. (i) While using REN individually improves SD in countries with high SD (in the 80th and 90th quantiles), this improving effect turns to a worsening effect due to its interaction with GPR, which shows the moderating impact of GPR. (ii): While EC individually improves SD across all quantiles, these improving effects persist in countries with low SD (in the 10th, 20th, 30th, and 40th quantiles) even when complexity interacts with GPR, showing that GPR has no moderating impact on SD. Therefore, policymakers should investigate why the interaction of REN with GPR worsens SD in highly sustainable countries and redevelop regulatory renewable energy policies accordingly.
