The moderating effects of geopolitical risks on sustainable development through economic complexity and renewable energy consumption in 25 oil-producing countries

Conflicts in controlling or using natural resources, arising from geopolitical risks (GPR), which have become a new normal today, can damage natural ecosystems and threaten sustainable development. In this context, GPR can turn the positive impact of supporting independent variables on sustainable development (SD) into a negative one. This research investigates the moderating effects of GPR on SD through renewable energy consumption (REN) and economic complexity (EC) in 25 oil-producing countries with relatively higher oil-reserve-related risks between 2000 and 2021. The panel quantile regression analysis reveals. (i) While using REN individually improves SD in countries with high SD (in the 80th and 90th quantiles), this improving effect turns to a worsening effect due to its interaction with GPR, which shows the moderating impact of GPR. (ii): While EC individually improves SD across all quantiles, these improving effects persist in countries with low SD (in the 10th, 20th, 30th, and 40th quantiles) even when complexity interacts with GPR, showing that GPR has no moderating impact on SD. Therefore, policymakers should investigate why the interaction of REN with GPR worsens SD in highly sustainable countries and redevelop regulatory renewable energy policies accordingly.