Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Türkiye and PIIGS Countries
Yıldız, Ümit; Bayhan, Semiha
In economies, borrowing may be resorted to in case of insufficient tax and tax-like revenues in financing public expenditures. In this respect, public debts are essential for financing growth and development. The effects of public debts, among the natural income sources of economies, on economic growth are intensely discussed today. The relationship between public debt and economic growth is important, especially in developing countries and relatively fragile economies where savings are insufficient to finance investments. This study aims to reveal the effects of public debt on economic growth in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS), which are considered the fragile economies of the Eurozone, and also in Türkiye. For this purpose, the study's findings, which analyze the panel data of the relevant countries for the period 1998-2022, basically conclude that public debt positively affects economic growth in Türkiye and PIIGS countries. These findings emphasize the importance of accurately formulating public borrowing policies and implementing appropriate strategies for economic growth in the relevant countries.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Econometric Analysis of Causal Relationship Between External Debt and Inflation in Türkiye: Frequency Domain Causality Approach
Yıldız, Ümit; Bayramoglu, Turgut
The primary objective of this study is to examine the causal nexus between external debt and inflation in Türkiye and to determine whether this relationship is persistent or transitory. Using quarterly data on total external debt stock and the consumer price index for the 2004Q01–2025Q01 period, this study analyzes causal relationships across the short, medium, and long run within the frequency-domain causality framework. According to the empirical results, no causal relationship from inflation to external debt is detected in any period; however, a unidirectional causality exists from external debt to inflation in the short and medium run, although this relationship does not hold in the long run. The study's findings indicate that external debt is a driver of inflation in Türkiye, but the causal relationship is not persistent. These results offer significant implications for anti-inflationary policies and debt management strategies.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Analysıs of asymmetrıc relatıonshıps between ınflatıon and trade openness ın türkiye: evıdence from the hıdden coıntegratıon test for the perıod 1975-2024
Yıldız, Ümit
This study analyzes the long-term relationships between inflation and trade openness in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1975 to 2024, the study employs annual percentage change in the consumer price index to represent inflation, and the share of total trade in gross domestic product to represent trade openness. Long-term cointegration relationships between the variables are examined using the Engle & Granger (1987) cointegration method and the Granger & Yoon (2002) hidden cointegration method. The findings from the Engle & Granger (1987) test reveal a long-term cointegration relationship from inflation to trade openness in Türkiye during the relevant period. Meanwhile, the Granger & Yoon (2002) test detects hidden cointegration relationships from the positive and negative components of inflation to the negative components of trade openness. Following the identification of hidden cointegration relationships, long-term coefficients are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. According to the estimation results, a 1-unit increase in the positive components of inflation causes a decrease of approximately 0.26 units in the negative components of trade openness. Conversely, a 1-unit increase in the negative components of inflation increases the negative components of trade openness by approximately 0.22 units. In general, the findings indicate that increases in inflation during the relevant period reduced the contraction in trade openness in Türkiye, while decreases deepened it.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ3Are Geopolitical Risks a Permanent Driver of Global Inflation? Evidence from 1985-2024
Yıldız, Ümit
This study investigates the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and global inflation and examines whether this causal effect, if any, is persistent. To this end, the stationarity of the annual Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and global inflation series for the 1985–2024 period was first analyzed using the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test, which concluded that the series are stationary at levels. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using a stationary frequency domain causality approach, revealing a unidirectional causal relationship running from GPR to global inflation at both low and high frequencies. The causality identified at low frequencies indicates that this causal effect is permanent. The findings of the study suggest that mitigating geopolitical risks is of vital importance in the fight against global inflation.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ4Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bitcoin: A Transient Nexus
Yıldız, Ümit
Uncertainty plays a significant role in shaping investment decisions, both directly and indirectly. In an uncertain economic environment, investors’ motivations for decision-making may vary. While some investors tend to seek safe-haven assets, others may engage in speculative behavior. Therefore, uncertainty can influence financial instruments through various mechanisms. One of these instruments is Bitcoin, which is often regarded as the “gold” of cryptocurrencies. Compared to traditional financial investment instruments, Bitcoin exhibits higher volatility and is among the primary assets that may be affected by uncertainty. However, an important question is whether this effect is temporary or per-manent. By adopting a frequency-domain causality approach, this study seeks to investigate the causal linkages between Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) and Bitcoin price movements. In this context, the causal nexus between GEPU and BTC prices is examined for the entire period and for different frequencies. Although the study's findings show no causal nexus between the variables over the entire period, the analyses for the short, medi-um, and long run indicate a causal relationship from GEPU to BTC in the medium run. Accordingly, GEPU can be considered one of the factors affecting BTC price; however, its impact does not appear to be persistent.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2022Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Beklentileri Rasyonel mi?
Yıldız, Ümit; Günsoy, Bülent
Uluslararası ticari faaliyetlere olanak sağlayan döviz kurları ekonomileri birçok kanaldan etkileme gücüne sahip önemli bir makroekonomik değişkendir. Bu özelliği ile döviz kurları pek çok ülkede iktisat politikalarının temel odak noktaları arasında yer almaktadır. Döviz kurlarına yönelik politikalar geliştirilirken en az döviz kurunun izlediği süreç kadar kura yönelik beklentiler de politika yürütücüleri tarafından dikkatle izlenmektedir. Bu ne - denle beklentilerin rasyonalitesi hem doğru politikaların geliştirilebilmesi hem de etkin yürütülebilmesi için son derece önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için döviz kuru beklentilerinin rasyonel beklentiler hipotezinin öne sürdüğü gibi rasyonel olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada dolar kuruna yönelik kısa ve uzun dönem beklentilerin yansızlığının ve etkinliğinin incelenerek beklentilerin rasyonel olup olmadığının orta- ya konulması bu çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Çalışma bulgularına göre yansızlık hipotezi her durumda reddedilirken, etkinlik hipotezi genel olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu sonuçlar temel olarak mevcut bilginin etkin şekilde kullanılıyor olmasına rağmen ekonomik birimlerin yansız tahminlerde bulunamadığı daha net bir ifa- deyle beklentilerin rasyonel olmadığı sonucunu ima etmektedir. Türkiye’nin nispeten kırılgan bir yapıya sahip olması ile ekonomik ve politik şokların döviz kuru üzerindeki öngörülemeyen etkilerinin ulaşılan bu sonuçlar üzerinde etkili olduğu söylenebilir.
- MakaleYalnız künye2021Frequency domain causality analysis of the relationship between the exchange rate and cds for turkey
Yıldız, Ümit; Bayhan, Semiha; Kömür, Selin
In this study, the causality relationship between the exchange rate and CDS is examined for\rTurkey. In the study, the causality relationship in question is tested as short, medium and\rlong term with the help of frequency domain causality approach. In the study in which daily\r5 years CDS for the period 11/03/2020-14/04/2021 and daily data of exchange rate of USA\rDollar representing the exchange rate are analyzed, a causal relationship is determined from\rthe exchange rate to CDS at low frequencies, in other words, a long-term causality\rrelationship is determined. However, no causality relationship was found from CDS to\rexchange rate in any term. The results basically imply that in the long run, the exchange rate\rof USA Dollar has an impact on CDS representing the country risk, in other words, the\rchanges in the exchange rate affect risk perception about Turkey in the long run.
AtıfTR Dizin7
İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2020Yüksek teknoloji ihracatı sürecinde inovasyonun etkisi: brıcs ülkeleri üzerine bir analiz
Durmaz, Atakan; Yıldız, Ümit
Bu çalışmanın amacı, BRICS ülkelerinde inovasyonun yüksek teknoloji ihracatı üzerindeki etkisinin olup olmadığının araştırılmasıdır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak çalışmada ilgili ülkelerin AR-GE harcamaları, sahip oldukları patent sayıları ve yüksek teknoloji ihracatı arasındaki ilişkiler 1999-2018 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Panel veri tekniklerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, öncelikle serilerde yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı araştırılmıştır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığının belirlenmesinin ardından, serilerde yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı durumunda da uygulanabilen Pesaran (2007) birim kök testi ile serilerin durağanlığı araştırılmıştır. Sonrasında ise düzeyde durağan olmadığı belirlenen serilerin farkı alınarak durağan hale getirilmiş ve değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler panel sabit etkiler ve panel rassal etkiler yöntemleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın çıktılarında, çalışmaya konu olan ülkelerde, patent sayısı ve yüksek teknoloji ihracatı arasında anlamlı pozitif ilişkiye rastlanılmıştır. Buna göre inovasyonun, BRICS ülkeleri için yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatında önemli bir faktör olduğu görülmekte, bu ülkelerde yüksek katma değer yaratmak için inovasyon faaliyetlerine önem verilmesi gerektiği anlaşılmaktadır.
AtıfOpenAlex6TR Dizin3İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2020Econometric analysis of convergence in carbon emission per capita for mena countries
Yıldız, Ümit; Boz, Fusun Celebi
In this study, it is mainly aimed to investigate whether carbon emission rates tendto converge for MENA countries. In this context, the convergence of carbonemissions per capita in MENA countries is examined for the period 1965-2014.In the study in which panel data econometric methods are applied, it is primarilyinvestigated whether there are cross-sectional dependence on the variables. Afterthe determination of cross-sectional dependency, the stationarity of the series areexamined by CADF unit root test. According to the test results, it is concludedthat the carbon emission rates series in MENA countries are stationary at I(1).The results of the study indicate that the carbon emission per capita in MENAcountries tends to converge and they are in a similar industrialization process
AtıfOpenAlex3TR Dizin2İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2019Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Sovereign Credit Ratings and Basic Macroeconomic Variables: An Application on the Upper Middle Income Countries
Durmaz, Atakan; Yıldız, Ümit
In the study beeing investigated therelationship between sovereign credit ratings and basic macroeconomic variables, sovereign credit ratings of 32 countries rated by Standard and Poors (S&P) and five independent variables were examined within the 2008-2017 period by using panel ordered probit model. The results show that as per capita income rises, the likelihood of credit ratings at BB + and lower levels is reduced, increasing the likelihood of having an investment grade BBB- and credit ratings on it. The increase in the per capita income in the countries in the upper middle income group increases the likelihood of reaching the highest BBB level while decreasing the possibility of passing the BB-. The opposite is true for inflation and interest rates. As the general level of prices and the interest rate increase, the rate of increase of the investable level of an upper middle income group decreases and the rate of speculative level increases. While the increase in the general level of prices has strongly increased the likelihood that the countries subject to the study are at the BB- level of the credit rating, it is also strongly reducing the likelihood of being at an investable level such as BBB. On the other hand, there is no systematic relationship between soverign creditratings and the unemployment rate and the exchange rate for the countries in the upper middle income group.
AtıfTR Dizin1İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018Econometric analysis of structural breaks in turkey's credit default swap (cds)
Yıldız, Ümit; Kirca, Mustafa; Dinç, Mehmet
Credit default swap (CDS) is defined as a credit derivative instrument that protects the creditor against a nonrepayment risk of a financial loan. CDS provides important information to investors about the credibility of countries, as well as being a risk indicator closely followed by market participants as it shows the credit risk concurrently. The purpose of this study is to determine the structural breaks in the CDS for Turkey and the economic and political reasons behind them. For this purpose, unit root test with multiple structural breaks is used to determine the structural break dates, using monthly-CDS data from January 2012 to December 2016 that based on 5-year CDS base points. According to the test results, significant structural breaks are found at the credit risk premium for Turkey in April 2013, September 2014, June 2015 and finally in February 2016. It seems that the economic and political events that took place on these dates were influential in the structural breaks on the CDS.
AtıfTR Dizin5İncele
