The Relationship Between Public Expenditures and Openness in the MIST Countries

After the Second World War, increases were observed in both public expenditures and openness, and researchers started to investigate the relationship between these two variables. As a result of the investigations, three hypotheses revealing the relationship between public expenditures and openness were developed. These hypotheses are the compensation hypothesis, the efficiency hypothesis, and the deindustrialization hypothesis. According to the compensation hypothesis, there is a positive relationship between openness and public expenditures, and openness increases public expenditures. On the other hand, according to the efficiency hypothesis, there is a negative relationship between public expenditures and openness, and openness reduces public expenditures. Finally, according to the deindustrialization hypothesis, there is no relationship between public expenditures and openness. In the present study, the effect of openness on public expenditures in the MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey) countries was tested via panel data analysis using annual data for the 1960-2021 period. In this respect, as a result of the LM cointegration test, it was concluded that there was a cointegration relationship between the variables of public expenditures and openness. Afterward, a coefficient estimate was made for the variables with the CUP-FM and BA-OLS tests, and a positive relationship was revealed between the variables of public expenditures and openness. Finally, the result of the Fisher causality test supported the result of the LM cointegration test. Thus, it was concluded that the compensation hypothesis was valid in the MIST countries for the 1960-2021 period.