The effects of national and global macroeconomic factors on emerging stock markets: An empirical research on Turkey and BRICS countries

This study was handled and prepared to determine the impact of national and global macroeconomic\rfactors on the stock exchanges of Turkey and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)\rcountries. For this purpose, monthly data from January 2003 - December 2016 were used to analyse\rthe study. Federal funds rate, global commodity price index, MSCI World Index, consumer price\rindex, industrial production index, narrow-defined money supply and U.S. Dollar-based real\rexchange rate are the explanatory variables of the study. The explained variables of the research are\rthe closing prices of the stock market index of these countries. In this context, each country set a model,\rand the Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was applied to reach the related\rresults. In addition, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was used in the\rstudy. In this context, the global commodity price index, narrow-defined money s upply, a nd U.S.\rDollar-based real exchange rate were the explanatory variables; the closing prices of the stock market\rof these countries as dependent variables were included in the models. According to the ARDL\rapproach analysis results, it was observed that there were statistically significant effects in the context\rof the variables. Furthermore, according to the results of the NARDL approach analysis, it was\rdetermined that there were short-term and long-term asymmetric effects in the context of the\rvariables.