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- MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2026Asymmetric Nexus Between Gold and Bitcoin: New Evidence from Hidden Cointegration Approach
Yildiz, Umit
The main objective of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric linkages between gold, a traditional investment instrument, and Bitcoin, often referred to as the digital gold of cryptocurrencies, and to determine their direction and magnitude. Forthis purpose, the study examines cointegration relationships amongthe variables using weekly data from January 2, 2022, to April 5, 2026. According to the Engle & Granger (1987) cointegration test, there is no long-term relationship between the variables. However, the Granger &Yoon (2002) hidden cointegration test determined hidden cointegration relationships from the gold's positive components to the Bitcoin's positive components and from the Bitcoin's positive components to the gold's negative components. Subsequently, longterm coefficients are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. The results show that a 1% increase in gold's positive shocks leads to approximately a 0.92%-0.95% decrease in Bitcoin's positive shocks. A 1% increase in Bitcoin's positive shocks results in approximately a 0.08%-0.10% increase in gold's negative shocks. The estimation results show that increases in gold prices significantly constrain the rise in Bitcoin prices, but the impact of Bitcoin price increases on gold price decreases remains limited. Finally, the findings demonstrate that gold's market-making capacity as a traditional investment vehicle is stronger than that of modern financial investment vehicles.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ4The Armenia-Georgia War of 1918 in the Context of the Resolution of the Border Dispute by Force
Sadik, Ramin
Seizing the opportunity created by the revolutions in Russia, the three South Caucasian peoples declared their independence in 1918 and wanted to be part of the new order after World War I. At the same time, they engaged in an intense debate about their livingspace and the disputed borders between them. Azerbaijan followed a more restrained policy than the other two and favoured a negotiated settlement of the conflicts. Meanwhile, Georgia and Armenia went to war over the border dispute between them, and the region witnessed bloody confrontations for this reason. The dream of 'Greater Armenia' of the Dashnak Party, which is in power in Armenia, has been the main cause of the conflicts in the region. Dashnak's unending ambitions, its territorial claims against both neighbours and its preference for an armed rather than a political solution turned it into the main perpetrator of the turmoil. Consequently, the Armenian leadership's provocative actions against Georgia led to a fierce war between the two countries in December 1918. The war, which continued for three weeks, was halted by the intervention of Britain and France and ended with a peace treaty. This study focuses on the wars that took place between Armenia and Georgia in 1918. Within the scope of the study, the documents ofthe Georgian Central Historical Archive were examined, news, comments and analyses in the Georgian, Russian and Azerbaijani press of the period were meticulously scanned, and memoirs were examined. At the same time, as a result of reading, collating and evaluating the second-hand sources written on the subject, the study has been transformed into an original academic article.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2022The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach
Özden, Erdemalp
The indicators related to foreign trade are conventionally measured in a currency or as the ratio of the country's gross domestic products. The ratio of exports to imports, alternatively, provides more useful results when comparing the foreign trade performance of economies both over time and with other countries as a unit-free indicator. In this study, the macroeconomics and financial determinants affecting this ratio are examined both econometrically and using the machine learning method. In this context, the autoregressive distributed lag model method was first used to investigate the relationship between normalized gross domestic products, exchange rate, consumer price index, producer price index, crude oil and Turkey's ratio of exports to imports rate between 2010-2021, monthly. Long-term analysis showed that the 1% depreciation of the Turkish Liras against the US dollar increased the ratio of exports to imports rate by 0.7 points. In addition, a 1% increase in consumer price index will increase ratio of exports to imports by 1.9 points, while a 1% increase in producer price index will cause a -0.8 point decrease on the ratio of exports to imports. Then, the pattern between the variables was analyzed with quadratic support vector machine, a machine learning method. Finally, the novel ARDL-SVM hybrid method was developed, and the pattern between the variables was examined. The findings revealed that although the econometric method provided a broader scope for interpreting the relationships between variables, the developed ARDL-SVM method successfully captured patterns between variables.
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İncele - DergiTURKISH JOURNAL OF HISTORY-TARIH DERGISI
- DergiEKOIST-JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS AND STATISTICS
- DergiJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCHES-IKTISAT POLITIKASI ARASTIRMALARI DERGISI