Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

• 1

Yazarlar

• Sayar, Ramazan(1)
• Özden, Erdemalp(1)

• MakaleAçık Erişim2022/r/bayburt/14305
  The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach

  Özden, Erdemalp

  The indicators related to foreign trade are conventionally measured in a currency or as the ratio of the country's gross domestic products. The ratio of exports to imports, alternatively, provides more useful results when comparing the foreign trade performance of economies both over time and with other countries as a unit-free indicator. In this study, the macroeconomics and financial determinants affecting this ratio are examined both econometrically and using the machine learning method. In this context, the autoregressive distributed lag model method was first used to investigate the relationship between normalized gross domestic products, exchange rate, consumer price index, producer price index, crude oil and Turkey's ratio of exports to imports rate between 2010-2021, monthly. Long-term analysis showed that the 1% depreciation of the Turkish Liras against the US dollar increased the ratio of exports to imports rate by 0.7 points. In addition, a 1% increase in consumer price index will increase ratio of exports to imports by 1.9 points, while a 1% increase in producer price index will cause a -0.8 point decrease on the ratio of exports to imports. Then, the pattern between the variables was analyzed with quadratic support vector machine, a machine learning method. Finally, the novel ARDL-SVM hybrid method was developed, and the pattern between the variables was examined. The findings revealed that although the econometric method provided a broader scope for interpreting the relationships between variables, the developed ARDL-SVM method successfully captured patterns between variables.

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  AtıfWoS1·OpenAlex5·TR Dizin1

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• Kitap BölümüYalnız künye2020/r/bayburt/12122
  The Relationship of financial development and export; the case of Turkey: A literature review

  Sayar, Ramazan

  During the global financial crisis in 2008, the world trade experienced a large and severe collapse. Between 2008 and 2009, world exports and exports in Turkey decreased by 16% and 22%, respectively. The recent research has shown that the slowdown in global demand and tight financing conditions are the main factors behind this drop in exports. Auboin (2009) has stated that the 10%-15% decline in international trade after the global financial crisis may be due to the decline in commercial finance. In addition, the decline in commercial finance is particularly important for developing countries that have many sectors dependent on external financing. This study examines the reasons of the decline in exports in the world especially in Turkey during global financial crisis and assesses whether the financing constraints have contributed to this collapse.This study considered as a literature review consists of theoretical framework of the relationship between export and export financing. In order to show whether there is an effect of financing in international trade, firstly, research on the financial models is included in the classical models of international trade that show the dependence of international trading companies to financing. Secondly it has been utilized studies that analyzing of empirical evaluations of the effects of the external trade firms' dependence on external financing.

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