Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yazarlar
- Yıldız, Ümit(2)
Yayınlar
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ3Are Geopolitical Risks a Permanent Driver of Global Inflation? Evidence from 1985-2024
Yıldız, Ümit
This study investigates the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and global inflation and examines whether this causal effect, if any, is persistent. To this end, the stationarity of the annual Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and global inflation series for the 1985–2024 period was first analyzed using the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test, which concluded that the series are stationary at levels. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using a stationary frequency domain causality approach, revealing a unidirectional causal relationship running from GPR to global inflation at both low and high frequencies. The causality identified at low frequencies indicates that this causal effect is permanent. The findings of the study suggest that mitigating geopolitical risks is of vital importance in the fight against global inflation.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ4Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bitcoin: A Transient Nexus
Yıldız, Ümit
Uncertainty plays a significant role in shaping investment decisions, both directly and indirectly. In an uncertain economic environment, investors’ motivations for decision-making may vary. While some investors tend to seek safe-haven assets, others may engage in speculative behavior. Therefore, uncertainty can influence financial instruments through various mechanisms. One of these instruments is Bitcoin, which is often regarded as the “gold” of cryptocurrencies. Compared to traditional financial investment instruments, Bitcoin exhibits higher volatility and is among the primary assets that may be affected by uncertainty. However, an important question is whether this effect is temporary or per-manent. By adopting a frequency-domain causality approach, this study seeks to investigate the causal linkages between Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) and Bitcoin price movements. In this context, the causal nexus between GEPU and BTC prices is examined for the entire period and for different frequencies. Although the study's findings show no causal nexus between the variables over the entire period, the analyses for the short, medi-um, and long run indicate a causal relationship from GEPU to BTC in the medium run. Accordingly, GEPU can be considered one of the factors affecting BTC price; however, its impact does not appear to be persistent.
