CO2 Emissions Forecast Based on Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption in Türkiye

This study aims to reveal the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions in Türkiye and the potential to reach the CO2 emission level targeted in the 2030 Paris Agreement. In the first stage, the cointegration relationship was analyzed with the AARDL model approach using annual data for 1965-2022. According to the results of the analysis, in the long run, non-renewable energy consumption increases CO2 emissions, while renewable energy consumption decreases CO2 emissions. In the second phase of the research, three scenarios were prepared for each of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption. For nine scenarios, including combinations of these scenarios, CO2 emissions that may occur until 2030 were estimated using the econometric simulation method. According to the estimation results, the low non-renewable energy consumption and high renewable energy consumption scenario was determined as the scenario that can reduce CO2 emissions the most until 2030. However, even in this case, it is understood that more investment in renewable energy will be required since the 2030 CO2 emission reduction target will not be achieved. Therefore, policymakers need to enact policies to increase incentives for renewable energy generation in both the public and private sectors and take steps to improve the necessary infrastructure.