A hybrid method for determining the export sector and product for Turkey: Bayesian econometrics and multi-criteria decision analysis

Developing economies need to support strategic sectors that will transform their productive structures to ensure development. Therefore, the ability of these strategic sectors to produce exportable products is essential. This study follows a different path to determine strategically important export sector and products for Turkey, one of the countries struggling with the middle-income trap for a while. This different path is a hybrid method by combining the results of Bayesian econometrics with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, one of the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods. As a result, the export sector that should be prioritized is transportation, and export products are cars and vehicle parts. By applying the hybrid method in this study to other countries, strategic sectors and goods can be determined.