Future of fig production in Turkey

Fig is a fruit that grows in warm and humid climates; therefore, it is widely cultivated in the countries of Mediterranean climate zone. It has an important role in human nutrition with the minerals and Vitamins it contains. While fresh figs are offered for direct consumption, dried figs are used as the main or auxiliary ingredient in many desserts. Located in the Mediterranean climate zone, Turkey is an important fig producer and exporter with a share of 23% in world fig production. Although fig production is realized in 60 out of 81 provinces in Turkey, it is mostly produced in Aydin, Izmir, Bursa, Mersin, and Hatay provinces, which provide some 86 percent of the total production. The aim of this study is to predict the fig production trend of Turkey for the next 9 years from 2017 to 2025 using the fig production data from the period between 1991 and 2016 in order to enlighten the policy and decision makers regarding fig, an important export product of Turkey. The ARIMA model has been used to make the estimations in the study. According to the findings, it has been forecasted that Turkey’s fig production will decrease in the next ten years from 2017 to 2025 and the total share of five leading provinces will increase by 1 percent in fig production. It has also been estimated that fig production will increase in leading fresh fig producer provinces, whereas it will decrease in leading dried fig producer provinces in Turkey. It has been concluded that there is a need to create fresh fig demand in other countries for new exporting possibilities.